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An Early Look with James Jordan.- Morphettville July 25

Racing.com’s South Australian Form Analyst James Jordan has provided his preview for racing at Morphettville - Saturday July 25.

Suggested Bets:

R7 No6 - Just Zerene

My comment on her performance first up last preparation was "Black type filly" so I'm hoping she'll prove me right in the feature on Saturday. It's quite a unique race in that it's for two and three-year-olds and at set weights. Recent history suggests it's not an easy task for 2yos, with only one being successful in the last ten years. I think Just Zerene maps well to stalk the speed and she moved well in her recent jump out. Happy to lock in the $4.20 now, I think Supreme Idea is hugely under the odds at the same price.

With a tough enough card to find early bets I thought it might be worthwhile to touch on Race 1 on the card and the differences between my market and the current market. As you can see below I've priced Woolsthorpe Store and Bertwhistle much longer than their current prices. At the odds on offer the two I'm interested in are Exalted Ruth and Busker's Ballad. Assuming Woolsthorpe and Bertwhistle stay short I could also entertain backing Classy Joe and Ourkhani with any kind of drift. Wouldn't normally look to back four horses in a race but with such a big discrepancy with the two favourites, I would consider making a book here.

JJ Market

 

 

 

 

 

 

Predictions:

  • Rail back to True for the first time since May 2nd, inside was the best ground that day.
  • Very light winds forecast so not expecting any benefit for cover in the chute.
  • Since Dec 2017 there's been 14 meetings in True, raced perfectly on 8 occasions and favoured inside/on-pace in the remaining 6 meetings.
  • Verdict : Most likely it will play fairly but would have no hesitation backing on-pacers.

Drifters/Lays:

R1 Woolsthorpe Store $4.60-$5.00

He's a horse that excels in the wet and can't see it being wet enough for him. He's not hopeless on the dry by any stretch but I think his 'good track price' is in the double-figure vicinity. Happy to be against him in the opener at the odds.

R5. Rainmoth $4.40

I've got a lot of time for this horse and I'll be looking to follow his this preparation, but not first up. He trialled well enough and was strong late but I think over 1100m he is vulnerable to being beaten for acceleration. He jumps well but his speed thereafter is quite slow which could mean he's only a couple of lengths in front of Octane in the run. Octane has an exceptional turn of foot so I'm firmly in his camp.

R7 Supreme Idea $4.40

Surprised at how short this filly is. Three jump outs in the lead up to this race so she's going to be very forward but I think she's under the odds at present. She's the same price as Just Zerene at present and at the $4.20 and I'd be more than happy taking evens about Just Zerene in a head-to-head.

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