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An Early Look with James Jordan - Morphettville 12 September 2020

Suggested Bets:

R4 Akkacan - place only.

Potentially in for more punishment here with the 'place only' play, but I've had some success with this bet type with this horse. He is honest but finds it very hard to win. He was luckless last Saturday and draws to get a similar run in transit here. The difference is the switch to the outer track which means he's more likely to get a run in the straight. I'm happy to take the $2.80 the place on offer and if you're feeling adventurous you can multi it up with the other bet and cop $6.44.

 

R9 Instant Celebrity

She's the most exciting galloper going around at Morphettville on Saturday and I think she can keep her unbeaten run intact. She's had about 8 weeks between runs but that was planned so she could have a layoff before being aimed at the Thousand Guineas. She trialled at Gawler on September 4th and moved very well, finishing second in fast time. I think she can sit back and chime in late with the electric turn of foot we saw last start winning the Oaklands Plate at listed level. It's the last race metropolitan race from the eastern states so every man and their dog will be looking to back her. Can't see any better than $2.30 being bet, happy to take price now.

 

Predictions:

  • Last meeting was August 28th and rail was out 7m, the fence was much inferior ground.
  • In the last 2 years there's been nine meetings with the rail between 9-11m, only once has there been a slight advantage to on-pacers.
  • With scattered showers forecast, the track should either be in the 4 or 5 range.
  • Verdict = Fair track


Drifters/Lays:

R4 Antrim's Secret $5.00

Happy to pot her at the current price. She's not yet proven at metro level and comes into this first up off a trial that I thought was just a pass mark. Her two wins at the end of last preparation were both at Pt Augusta and I think this is a very even race, full of chances. If I've read the race correctly, you'll be taking unders if you bet early. 

 

R5 Leorbit $6.50

Some corporates must like this gelding's chance as they're cuddling the last-start winner. I've got a different read on the race; I thought his latest win looked a bit better than it was. It was a leader's track, he sat up outside the leader and put a bad field away in the straight. He meets a better field here and gets no weight relief from last start. I think you'll get double-figures if you keep your powder dry until raceday. 

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