Back to the course proper on Saturday and it's a card filled with deep races in which there are plenty of legitimate winning chances. I found the meeting quite tough but have targeted a couple of races with what I consider to be only a few live hopes. I'm keener to wait for a few market moves before really sinking my teeth into the card, but if playing early I'd be betting small stakes.
Race 2 No 2 - Jimmy With A Dash
This looks a pretty moderate maiden to me with three logical chances. Jimmy, Flying Arion and Seven Letters as a smoky. Flying Arion has trialled ok although think it will want every bit of the 1200m and I thought the jumpout of Seven Letters back in June wasn't too bad either. In moderate form races I think you should give added credence to variables such as trainer and jockey. This is part of the reason I am with Jimmy Witha Dash. He's shown enough in three jump outs to date, but I like the fact that in the past year Will Clarken shoots at better than 22% for debutants and horses that are first up. Basically, they trial for fitness but they race to win. Couple that with the fact Todd Pannell strikes at 26.3% when riding for the stable and a good profile is built. The horse was also backed from $6.50 into $2.80 last Saturday at Murtoa (before it was abandoned) and has been $3.10 into $2.60 for Saturday. He'll do for me in a moderate race.
Race 6 No 16 - I Am
Looking for the horse that maps best in what looks like a very open affair with a favourite, Burning The Clock, that I think is under the odds at $3.60. I've settled on I Am which drops 5kgs into this off a solid enough run last start when only 1.7L off Sisstar at Flemington. The 2nd horse from that race, Varda, went around as a $2 chance on Wednesday at Bendigo so the market clearly doesn't mind the form reference. That was also I Am's first go with the blinkers on and on that run along I think she deserves to be favourite in this field. She'll map to sit right on the heels of the leaders. Not an easy race but happy to play small at $4.60.