Skip to Content

An Early Look with James Jordan - Murray Bridge August 8

Racing.com’s gun South Australian form analyst James Jordan has a look at Saturday’s Murray Bridge meeting…

One of the hardest cards I can remember, with lots of very even races and a spattering of favourites short of the price you'd need to back them.

There's also a fair bit of rain forecast but I'm sceptical as to whether it's going to arrive.

Suggested bet:

R9 Tatalina

Big field to end the day with a host of horses under $21 and joint-favourites sitting at $5 quotes.

If you focus on the last three runs of all these horses it's not hard to see that Exalted Ruth and Tatalina bring the best ratings into the race. Exalted Ruth has carried either 51.5kg or less at her past three runs and rises to 56.5kg in this. She's also going to need a bit of luck, being a backmarker drawn gate five in a 16-horse field.

I have priced her $6.50, so she's a winning chance but not the right price.

Tatalina has not run a bad race since arriving at Team McEvoy and she was able to run some very competitive races in Melbourne beyond 2000m. Although she comes into this race first up I am happy to be with her, knowing she's got the class to make up for a slight lack of fitness.

Hopefully Jess Eaton can give her an economical run up until the home turn and trust that the Gifford Hill straight is long enough to allow her to finish off over the top of them. Happy to take the $5 on offer.

Predictions:

  • Wind is the biggest bias-determining factor at Gifford Hill. Very light southerly winds should mean no bias.
  • Last meeting was rail out 10m from the 1000m mark and out wide was the best ground in the straight.
  • With the rail back to the ‘true’ position it should be quite fair across.
  • Last time rail was ‘true’ with light southerly winds was 15/3/20 and the track raced evenly.
  • Verdict = Fair track

Drifters/Lays:

Never a great plan to pot McEvoy horses anywhere, especially Gifford Hill where the stable have saddled up 92 runners over the past year for 30 winners! With rounding, that has them shooting at 33 per cent! It's just a reflection of bookmaking practices where their runners are put up incredibly short as they're the ones the retail customers are going to want to back.

R4 Fields Of Ivy $2.60

Not sure if it will drift as the stable's strike rate at Murray Bridge is very attractive but first up from a long spell at 1400m with the blinkers on for the first time brings an element of risk with it. I have her marked favourite but thought I was kind enough, pricing her at $3.50.

R6 Resurge $2.80

Not sure this horse has done enough to warrant being that price. A couple of pretty average Flemington jump outs in the lead up to this and gate 1 with the likelihood of traffic around him makes him closer to a $4 chance in this. I thought Desidero in the same race had just as good a chance.

Post categories

Racing SA - Racing Racing SA - Latest News