A unique set of circumstances present themselves for racing on Saturday at Morphettville. The forecast predicts we could see as much as 55mm of rainfall in the next 24 hours but on Friday afternoon the track was rated a Good 4. On top of that we haven't had a meeting at Morphettville yet in 2020 and the rail is +8m for the entire circuit.
There are obviously many associated risks with betting early, a few of the key ones are:
• Track downgrades or upgrades;
• Track bias and patterns, often caused by weather; and
• Scratchings that influence speed and map positioning.
With Saturday's card we're faced with all three of those variables, so I'm not inclined to do much business until race morning at the earliest. My stance on tipping in general is, if I'm not prepared to back them then neither should you. For that reason, I've decided to analyse a single race on Saturday's card that I feel will be impacted less by the uncertain weather conditions.
Race 3 - Market priced to 100% - Average price available
1. Plympton - $16.10 - $9.50
2. Artfulabeers - $21.00 - $12.00
3. Go Beyond - $48.00 - $31.00
4. Portamaggiore - $6.15 - $3.10
5. Staying Strong - $10.60 - $9.00
6. Always Guilty - $23.00 - $9.00
7. The Iron Lady - $4.07 - $4.40
8. Sacred Lass - $3.10 - $3.70
Portomaggiore - As you can see from the map below, this horse should lead the race without much pressure. I thought he was fair last start but was presented with a soft lead and ended up being four lengths off the winner in a race that I have rating as 'Average' for the class. Average price on offer at present is $3.10, so I won't be involved.
Always Guilty - My price is more than twice the current odds, so clearly not a horse I'm likely to back. Box-seated last start in a slow pace and was 3.75 lengths behind the winner which was $51. Maps well again and should be at peak fitness third-up to 1600m, but I think well short of the right price.
The Iron Lady - She was good at her past couple and gets the services of Todd Pannell here. The slight concern was that both her past two were run to suit and with the run she had last start I thought she was entitled to win. She's had 10 starts and yet to win but this race is very winnable. I think over the odds at $4.40 but with the uncertainty mentioned above is that a big enough over to dive in early? Probably not.
Sacred Lass - This is a lesson largely in SP profile. I like the filly, I think her trials and jumpouts suggest she'll go on to be a nice horse. I priced her as a $9.50 chance on debut (in a RB58) but the market loved her and was backed into $3.80. She was a touch disappointing, but I always thought the mile would be her trip. If I price her on that performance alone (no change for weight drop, extra distance etc…) she becomes a $12.50 chance. If I price her using her expected performance rating, based on her closing price of $3.80, I'd have her marked $1.70 in this race. These are hard ones to predict the closing price of because there would be varied opinions, but I've landed at $3.10 and this is a horse I'd be strongly considering backing when and if the market looks like rallying around her in the last 10 minutes of betting.